The Most Important Group Match Of The 2007 WC

Minnow-bashing continued yesterday with Pakistan and Sri Lanka comfortably winning their matches. A sombre end to Inzy's ODI career and perhaps his cricketing career. For although he has officially retired only from ODIs, knowing the machinations of Pakistani Cricket, he might very well be out of the squad the next time Pakistan play a Test match.

In today's matches, the Netherlands scored a consolation victory over fellow-associate nation Scotland. The Dutch bowled well to restrict Scotland to 136, a target they reached with plenty to spare. In the group B fixture, New Zealand defeated Canada by 114 runs. The Black Caps, batting first, built up a mammoth total of 363 featuring some huge hitting toward the end overs. However, in the absence of Shane Bond, their bowling looked ordinary. This may hurt the Kiwis in the knockout stages of the tournament.

So, now we move onto the most crucial match of the group stages - India vs Sri Lanka which of course is a must-win game for us. The Lankans have been talking themselves up quite a bit, whereas our team has been described as appearing to be disjointed. Frankly, I still fancy our chances against Sri Lanka. Sure, the Lankans have had a good time lately, but the opposition that they've faced hasn't been the greatest. Of course, they did trash Bangladesh and no one needs reminding of what the Bongs did to us! But as I stated in an earlier post, on a pitch with bounce and/or movement, I back India to win. And unlike some writers, I still don't believe that all fans should pay the price for a few lunatics' actions!

Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka - Whom To Support?

My predictions from yesterday were only partly right - South Africa did blast Scotland away. Kenya couldn't put it past New Zealand though, even after having the most ideal of starts to the match. I wonder if the pitch in the latter match had a lot of moisture on it prompting Kenya to put NZ in after winning the toss - in general, weaker teams are better placed if they bat first and put up a decent total. Oh well...

Moving on to tomorrow's matches. Pakistan vs Zimbabwe in normal times would have been a no-brainer, but with events as they have been in the lead-up to this match, I wouldn't rule out a Zimbabwe upset. However, a crushing Pakistan victory would be a fitting (if insignificant at this stage) tribute to the late Bob Woolmer, the true "Mr. Cricket" as one observer put it.

The second match of the day, Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, is very interesting from an Indian perspective. If Bangladesh win tomorrow, India's match against Sri Lanka becomes a straight knock-out. However, in this scenario, India would not be able to carry any points forward to the next round - if they progress that is. In case Sri Lanka win tomorrow, we have to beat Sri Lanka and hope that our Net Run-Rate is higher than Bangladesh's at the end of the group matches. However, since Bangladesh are playing last in the group, they would be in a position to up their NRR to required levels in order to qualify.

The ideal scenario would of course be Bangladesh losing both it's remaining matches and India winning against Sri Lanka. This would mean India and Sri Lanka progessing with India carrying forward 2 points. However, looking at the performance levels of both Bangladesh and Bermuda, it looks unlikely that Bangladesh will lose their last group match. In which case, the best scenario would be for Sri Lanka to defeat Bangladesh tomorrow, but not by a huge margin. In our last match we should then ensure, in addition to winning the match of course, that our NRR is at least greater than Sri Lanka's. This way, we make sure of qualifying no matter what Bangladesh do. Of course, one point in favour of both India and Sri Lanka is the huge margins by which both teams have defeated Bermuda. I don't think that Bangladesh have it in them (yet) to score such a comprehensive victory even if it has to come against Bermuda!

John Wright's Thoughts On India vs Sri Lanka

After today's facile win for India over Bermuda, John Wright speaks about India's upcoming must-win match against Sri Lanka - a match he calls the "match of the tournament." Australia and South Africa may have some thoughts on that, but let's excuse John for his hyperbole - after all, his soft corner for India is evident from his closing statement hoping for an Indian win!

He makes a few pertinent points though; he says that India's strength is its batting while Sri Lankan bowling is the more balanced of the two. He points to Sri Lanka's middle order of Dilshan, Silva and Arnold being no match for India. My personal thoughts mirror John's - our bowling hasn't looked upto scratch in the last two games. In 2003, our trio of fast bowlers Srinath, Nehra and Zaheer were destroying opposition line-ups (except Australia's). However, this time around except for Munaf, we haven't looked like running through a batting line-up. Even in today's match against Bermuda, we had to rely on Sehwag and Sachin to get through a few overs and pick up a wicket, when 40 overs between the main bowlers should have been enough. This means that the top and middle order will have to fire similarly to what it did today.

John spoke about India having the edge on Sri Lanka in neutral venues. Stats back up this statement - in 23 neutral venue matches between the two countries, India has won 15, Sri Lanka 7 with one No Result. Furthermore, of those 7 losses, 6 have occurred in Sharjah and UAE where the pitches are quite similar to Sri Lanka's sluggish turners. On a pitch with some bounce and/or movement, India have comfortably beaten Sri Lanka; witness the last time India and Sri Lanka met in a World Cup. However, this time Sri Lanka have the slinger, Lasith Malinga at their disposal. He hasn't caused us too many problems so far, having picked up just 4 wickets from 5 matches against us. He does have pace though and if he gets his radar right, he could cause our batsmen a few problems.

All in all, a cracking encounter on the cards! I, of course, am hoping for a big Indian win although I do think that this one is going to be too close for our comfort.